A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
